FXUS63 KBIS 080559 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty southerly winds turning northwest tonight. - Rain showers will pass from west to east across the state tonight, with light rain and snow possibly lingering through the day on Wednesday. - Below average temperatures are expected across the state through Thursday. Above average temperatures are then expected Friday through the weekend. - Widespread 30 to 50 percent precipitation chances are currently forecast later this weekend and into early next week. Initially as rain, possibly with a few thunderstorms on Sunday, then potentially changing to snow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Showers continue passing from west to east across the state, while any new lightning strikes haven't been observed in about a half hour. There could be a few rogue rumbles of thunder over the next couple hours yet, though the thunderstorm threat overall seems to have diminished. Peak wind gusts are currently from around 25 to 35 mph as winds shift to the northwest, though are expected to rapidly ramp up again Wednesday. UPDATE Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track east across western and central ND late this evening. Other than the Beach and Williston obs earlier this evening, winds seem to have calmed down a bit, with gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. Unless we see something out of the ordinary, will let the SPS go at 11 PM as advertised. UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east from western into central ND late this evening. Behind the initial band of showers, there is another area of non-convective shower activity. This activity was responsible for some stronger gusts over eastern Montana earlier this evening. Just within the last hour there was a gust to 62 mph at Beach. We issued a SPS earlier to cover this activity. The strongest gusts appear to be pretty sporadic, so holding off on higher impact short term HWW for now. RAP showed that this surge in winds did dissipate as it worked it's way through western ND. Will continue to monitor though. No changes with the wind advisory for tomorrow at this time. UPDATE Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Showers and now a few thunderstorms are pushing into western ND. One thundershower is pushing east of Fairfield from Billings into Dunn county. This thundershower is in an area of weak shear and strong mid-level lapse rates, and is pushing into a less favorable environment. A cluster of thunderstorms from around Plentywood MT to around Grenora continue to push east into Divide and far northern Williams Counties. These storms are within an area effective wind shear of 40 to 45 knots and good low and mid-level lapse rates. Moisture is limited and although environment is a little better here, as we go through the evening, the environment will also become more unfavorable. DCAPE values are higher over southwest ND but with either of these areas, can not rule out a localized 50 kt gust just due to the strong environmental winds. However the threat for severe convection looks to remain low. Will continue to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Scattered showers are currently approaching northwest ND. No thunder indicated as of yet, but a few rumbles are possible this evening. No significant changes to the going forecast attim. Strong southerly winds this evening ahead of the front, turning west to northwest behind the front. There could be a brief push of stronger winds directly behind the front, especially in the west this evening, aided by shower activity as well. But for the most part winds will drop off a bit overnight (but still breezy) and increase again mid to late morning west, and in the afternoon central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 An upper level low continues to move closer into the region bringing in windy conditions and precipitation. The surface low is located over eastern Montana resulting in the north south orientated pressure gradient. This surface pressure gradient is the driving force behind windy conditions across the area this afternoon. A warm front continues to move across the west warming the west into the 50s and even lower 60s. A cold front will quickly follow the warm front bringing forth a wind shift, windy conditions, and precipitation. There is weak instability with this system, but enough for a thunderstorm or two out west. Precipitation is forecast to move through the region this evening through tonight. QPF is forecast to be up to tenth of an inch. Post frontal winds are forecast to be windy across the state tomorrow due to cold advection and pressure rises from the aforementioned upper level low. There is a Wind Advisory in effect for 25 to 35 mph winds with gusts up to 50 mph are possible for much of North Dakota tomorrow. There is a low chance of wrap around snow showers across the north tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will cool a few degrees down into the 30s to 40s. A shortwave trough could move through the region Thursday morning bringing forth light snow and rain across the south. Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal Thursday as the colder air quickly filters to the east. An upper level ridge out west will tilt northwestward across the Plains this weekend bringing in warm weather this weekend. Temperatures are forecast to warm in the the 50s Friday and touch the 60s to 70s by the weekend. Temperatures will trend down Sunday as the ridge axis progress through the region and an upper level trough digs across Western CONUS. This upper low will bring a more active pattern next week and precipitation chances will increase and temperatures will decrease to below normal again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A cold front will continue pushing through the state tonight with winds shifting to the northwest. Rain showers are expected to some degree at all terminals, except KXWA where they appear to have already passed through. Rain showers could lead to reduced visibility and lowered ceilings, as well as locally gusty and erratic winds. LLWS persists across parts of south central ND, including KBIS and KJMS, though will end as winds become northwesterly. Northwesterly winds will ramp back up Wednesday with late morning and afternoon sustained winds around 30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts. Wrap around moisture in the form of snow, with some rain mixed in, may bring MVFR to IFR conditions to the northern terminals Wednesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>037-040>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Telken