ACUS11 KWNS 160039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160039
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...northern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 160039Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to increase through the
late evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 02z.

DISCUSSION...Moisture is steadily increasing into northern Alabama
and Middle Tennessee this evening as the low-level jet strengthens
ahead of a broken line of severe convection to the west. Mid to
upper 50s dew points now extend to the TN/AL/MS border, with a
narrow axis of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into northern
Alabama/Middle Tennessee. This trend in increasing moisture and
destabilization will continue as the upper level trough moves
eastward and storms continue to develop near the cold front and
within the warm sector. The RAP forecast suggests MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg will overlap deep layer shear 40-60 kts from Middle
Tennessee into northern Alabama. Though the northern extent of the
instability will be less, the strong background wind environment
will continue to support a mixed mode of clusters and semi-discrete
supercells capable damaging wind and tornadoes. A downstream Tornado
Watch will likely by 02z.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32878820 33418844 34458814 35088804 35978797 36598765
            36668649 36638562 36608506 36558502 35968496 34978561
            34128583 33268622 32818690 32878820

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN