FXUS06 KWBC 012002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sun March 01 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11 2026 Today's numerical models are in good agreement in depicting highly amplified 500-hPa flow across North America and vicinity. Strong anomalous ridging is forecast across the eastern Pacific and over the east coast of the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Below normal heights are forecast across the higher latitudes of the Western Hemisphere encompassing Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland. Anomalous mid-latitude troughing extends southward to the northern High Plains. A separate trough is noted farther to the south, centered near the Baja Peninsula. Generally near normal heights are forecast across Hawaii in between anomalous ridging to its northeast and anomalous troughing to its northwest. Expansive ridging supports above normal temperatures for most of the eastern half of the CONUS. This ridging combined with anomalous southerly low-level flow leads to high confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) of above normal temperatures from the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast, northward to the Mid-Atlantic, most of the Northeast, Appalachians, the eastern Great Lakes, and much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Near normal temperatures are more likely across most of the Interior West, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northern Plains due to predicted mid-level troughing. A slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for most of the West Coast, consistent with dynamical model guidance and observed near to above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. Below normal temperatures are likely for most of Alaska as an anomalous positively tilted trough is forecast across the Mainland southwestward to the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii consistent with observed near to above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. An active pattern is anticipated across much of the CONUS ahead of anomalous troughing predicted over the northern High Plains and Southwest. Predicted surface low pressure development combined with ample moisture advection from the Gulf leads to an expansive area of favored above normal precipitation for the central CONUS westward to the Rockies and eastward to the Appalachians and Northeast. Confidence for above normal precipitation is highest (greater than 60 percent chance) across much of the Southern Plains and adjacent areas of the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley, where moisture advection from the Gulf is expected to be robust. Drier than normal conditions are more likely across much of California and Nevada, associated with strong anomalous ridging forecast offshore. An active pattern is favored for much of southern and eastern Alaska ahead of the positively tilted trough forecast over the Mainland. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop over areas of the South Coast, favoring increased chances of precipitation across the region. Below normal precipitation is more likely behind the predicted trough, for parts of northwestern Alaska. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, associated with a trough forecast to its northwest. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on an amplified mid-level pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2026 The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain highly amplified during week-2, and depicts a slight progression of most of the main features illustrated in the preceding 6 to 10 day period. An anomalous mid level trough is forecast to progress to the Northern Plains and associated cyclonic flow is expected to dominate most of the central CONUS Anomalous downstream ridging is forecast to persist across the eastern quarter of the CONUS. However, the associated mean positive height anomaly center is predicted to move well offshore of New England. Strong ridging continues to be forecast over the eastern Pacific, with associated above normal heights overspreading the West Coast of the CONUS and adjacent areas. A weakening positively tilted trough is forecast over Mainland Alaska. Generally near normal mean heights are forecast across Hawaii, in between a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific and anomalous troughing over the west-central Pacific. Above normal temperatures remain favored for most of the eastern third of the CONUS associated with anomalous ridging. Confidence for above normal temperatures remains high (greater than 70 percent chance) for parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, underneath predicted anomalous southerly flow. Near normal temperatures are favored for much of the Interior West, Plains, and Pacific Northwest, as a mid-level trough slowly progresses eastward. Enhanced below normal temperature probabilities are indicated for parts of the Northern Plains, where mean negative height anomalies are expected to be the strongest. Farther to the west, predicted height rises lead to increased chances of above normal temperatures for California and adjacent areas of Arizona, Nevada, and southwestern Oregon. Below normal temperatures remain favored for most of Alaska due to predicted troughing. Above normal temperatures remain likely across Hawaii, influenced by near to above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. The persistence and slow progression of the trough over the west-central CONUS supports a continuation of an active pattern for most of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Confidence for above normal precipitation remains high (greater than 50 percent chance) across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent areas of the Great Lakes, Southeast, and Mississippi Valley, where ample moisture advection from the Gulf is expected associated with predicted southerly or southwesterly low-level flow. Below normal precipitation is favored for most of the West Coast and vicinity as anomalous ridging approaches from the west. Above normal precipitation remains favored for southern and eastern Alaska ahead of a weakening positively tilted trough. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for coastal northwestern Alaska due to predicted offshore low-level flow. Increased chances of above normal precipitation are indicated for Hawaii, associated with a predicted expansive trough to its northwest. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to a predicted continued amplified pattern. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20170302 - 20070315 - 19900212 - 20170210 - 20060223 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19890228 - 20060224 - 20170301 - 19960218 - 20110213 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 07 - 11 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 09 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$